NOVEMBER 2002

PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX RELIEF
ACT OF 1998

Estimates of Reimbursements to Localities
Fiscal Years 2003-2006

Revenue Forecasting Office
Department of Taxation
Richmond, VA

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Description of the PPTRA Program
Fiscal Year 2002 in Review
Summary of Fiscal Year 2003 Forecast
Methodology
Revisions to the PPTRA Model
Baseline Data
Vehicle Count Growth Rates
Average Assessed Vehicle Value Growth Rates
Vehicle Value Calculation
Tax Year and Fiscal Year Forecasts
Tax Year Forecast Verification
Fiscal Year Forecast
Fiscal and Tax Year Forecast Performance
Appendix A – PPTRA FY02 Locality Reimbursements
Appendix B – PPTRA History and Forecast by Locality
Appendix C – List of Localities Accepting the FY02 Forecast
Appendix D – Average Assessed Vehicle Value Growth Rates

Executive Summary

Section 58.1-3529 of the Code of Virginia requires this report and the forecast contained herein.  The reimbursement percentage utilized for tax year 2002 and beyond is 70 percent of the first $20,000 in vehicle value.

On May 24, 2002, the Forecasting and Analysis Office of the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) was consolidated with the Revenue Forecasting Office of the Department of Taxation (TAX).  The consolidation resulted in the transfer of forecasting responsibilities for the Personal Property Tax Relief Act (PPTRA) to TAX.  The PPTRA reimbursement-forecasting model has been revised and details of the changes are explained in the methodology section.

Actual PPTRA reimbursements for fiscal year 2002 totaled $826.2 million, exceeding the official forecast by $16.7 million.

The PPTRA reimbursement forecast for fiscal years 2003 to 2006 is highlighted below (in millions of dollars).

	FY99	FY00	FY01	FY02	FY03	FY04	FY05	FY06	
Forecast 
	159.9	321.7	598.7	809.4	874.0	920.7	964.4	1,010.5	
Actual Reimbursements
	181.5	322.1	604.2	826.1	--	--	--	--	

$ Difference
	-21.6	-0.4	-5.5	-16.7	--	--	--	--	

% Difference
	-11.9%	0.1%	0.9%	2.0%	--	--	--	--	

Note:  Forecast horizon assumes a 70 percent reimbursement rate since triggers needed to progress to the next level of reimbursement rate are not met in the interim revenue forecast released August 19, 2002.

Two variables drive personal property tax reimbursements: vehicle count (active vehicle registrations) and average assessed vehicle values.  Historical and forecast data for these two variables are shown in the table on the following page and compare the 2001 model to the 2002 model.

Vehicle Count.  The number of qualifying vehicles is a key determinant of growth in PPTRA reimbursements.  Because there are no data before TY 1999 on the number of qualifying vehicles, the number of registered vehicles has served as a proxy.  Growth in Virginia vehicle registrations has been an accurate indicator of growth in PPTRA qualifying vehicles, and over the past seven years, annual growth in the number of vehicle registrations has averaged slightly under 2.5 percent.  

Nearly 85 percent of the reimbursements through October have gone to five localities: Fairfax, Prince William, Arlington, and Loudoun Counties and the City of Alexandria.  The number of reimbursement records – a proxy for vehicle counts – is up approximately 1.7 percent for these localities.  While this number is below the 2.3 percent forecast for TY 2002, processing factors in localities suggest that 2.3 percent growth in vehicle count is still a sound projection.  

Therefore, the forecast for this year uses the standard methodology for vehicle count, without any judgmental adjustments.  
  
 Average Assessed Value.  The growth rate in average assessed vehicle values is the other key determinant of growth in PPTRA reimbursements.  The growth rate in average assessed vehicle values incorporates a fifteen-year moving annualized growth rate in new and used vehicle prices.  The 2002 PPTRA model therefore indicated that growth in average assessed vehicle values for the forecast horizon would be approximately 4.2 percent.  

Given that the only historical data for actual growth in average assessed vehicle values has been during a period of unprecedented growth in new car sales, the latest economic forecast and actual reimbursement data to-date have been used to test the accuracy of the long-term trend.  
At the meeting of the Governor’s Advisory Board of Economist’s Transportation Advisory Committee (GABE-TAC), members suggested that the weak economic outlook foreshadowed slower growth in vehicle sales and lower growth in new and used car process over the forecast horizon.

	Tax Year	Average Vehicle Prices	
History		New	Used	New % Change	Used % Change	
	TY94	17,931	4,371	5.4%	11.3%	
	TY95	18,960	4,944	5.7%	13.1%	
	TY96	19,924	5,281	5.1%	6.8%	
	TY97	20,433	5,365	2.6%	1.6%	
	TY98	20,938	5,525	2.5%	3.0%	
	TY99	21,685	5,787	3.6%	4.7%	
	TY00	22,385	6,014	3.0%	3.9%	
	TY01	22,969	6,158	2.8%	2.4%	
Forecast						
	TY02	23,420	6,212	2.0%	0.9%	
	TY03	24,043	6,396	2.7%	3.0%	
	TY04	24,680	6,507	2.6%	1.7%	
	TY05	25,316	6,618	2.6%	1.7%	
	TY06	25,953	6,728	2.5%	1.7%	

Actual reimbursement data through October also suggest that 4.2 percent growth in average assessed value is too high.  Fiscal year-to-date reimbursements from the large localities that have due dates during the first four months of fiscal year 2003 shows that the average reimbursement per record (roughly equivalent to the number of vehicles) is 2.5 percent greater than last year.  Given that actual reimbursement records represent the most accurate “real-time” data, the growth in average assessed value was reduced to 2.5 percent for the forecast horizon.  

A substantial amount of additional data will become available during November, including reimbursement requests from 217 localities with a tax due date in December.  Of these 217 localities, eight are in the top twenty in terms of reimbursements.   If past trends hold true for FY 2003, about 53 percent of the fiscal year total forecast of $874.0 million will be requested.  These additional requests for reimbursement will provide the data necessary to examine the forecast before the Governor’s budget recommendations are final.   

Description of the PPTRA Program

Local governments apply to the state Comptroller for a dollar for dollar reimbursement of the property tax reduction.  Reimbursements are limited to the first $20,000 in vehicle value and apply only to passenger cars, motorcycles and pickup/panel trucks which are privately owned or leased for personal use and weigh 7,500 pounds or less. Vehicles with an assessed value of $1,000 or less are reimbursed for 100 percent of the taxes paid.  The reimbursements were originally based on the following schedule:

		Tax Year			Percent Reimbursement

		1998				12.5% of the first $20,000
		1999				27.5% of the first $20,000
		2000				47.5% of the first $20,000
		2001				70.0% of the first $20,000
		2002				100.0% of the first $20,000

Figure 1: Tax Year Reimbursement Percent Schedule

Section 58.1-3524.C of the Code of Virginia establishes conditions under which the next level of tax relief can proceed.  If any one of the following conditions occurs, the level of tax relief provided in the following tax year cannot exceed the level of tax relief provided by the Commonwealth in the previous tax year: 

•	Actual general fund revenues for a fiscal year, including transfers, are less than the projected general fund revenues, as reported in the general appropriation act in effect at that time, by one-half of one percent or more of the amount of actual general fund revenues for such fiscal year.

•	The general fund revenue forecast provided by the Governor to the General Assembly in December, pursuant to §2.1-393 of the Code of Virginia indicates that general fund revenues, excluding transfers, for any fiscal year will be less than five percent greater than general fund revenues for the immediately preceding fiscal year; or 

•	The general fund revenue forecast provided by the Governor in December pursuant to  §2.1-393 of the Code of Virginia indicates that total general fund revenues available for appropriation, including transfers, for either of the fiscal years, covered by the general appropriation act in effect at that time, will be less than the general fund appropriations for such fiscal year or years. 

In addition, §58.1-3536 of the Code of Virginia caps total tax relief reimbursements to treasurers at 8.5 percent of the total general fund revenues available for appropriation for payment in any fiscal year.  If anticipated reimbursements exceed this level, the percentage of tax relief applicable for the related tax year must be reduced to ensure actual expenditures do not exceed the statutory cap. 
Fiscal Year 2002 in Review

Section 58.1-3529 of the Code of Virginia requires this report and the forecast contained herein.  The reimbursement percentage utilized for tax year 2002 and beyond is 70 percent of the first $20,000 in vehicle value.

On May 24, 2002, the Forecasting and Analysis Office of the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) was consolidated with the Revenue Forecasting Office of the Department of Taxation (TAX).  The consolidation resulted in the transfer of forecasting responsibilities for PPTRA to TAX.  The PPTRA reimbursement-forecasting model has been revised and details of the changes are explained in the methodology section.

Actual PPTRA reimbursements for fiscal year 2002 totaled $826.1 million, exceeding the official forecast by $16.7 million.  Some of the factors that impacted the FY02 forecast are:

•	Sales of new and used vehicles exceeded the recession forecast for sales contained in the PPTRA model.  The introduction of zero percent financing during October 2001-January 2002 for up to three years effectively shielded the auto industry from recession. The introduction of zero percent financing for five years in July 2002 aims at continuing this performance.  

•	Total vehicle count in calendar year 2001 grew by 2.4 percent over the previous year.  The PPTRA model last year used a growth rate of 1.8 percent for 2001 in anticipating a recession with declining auto sales for part of the year.   

•	The price of new and used vehicles continues to rise.  The special incentives offered by dealers and manufactures on new vehicles are effectively raising average vehicle values.  The average price of all vehicles grew by 2.4 percent in calendar year 2001.  Average vehicle prices have increased 1.2 percent in the first six months of 2002.  The average five-year growth rate for new and used vehicles are 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.  The PPTRA model yields an annualized growth rate of 2.0 percent over 2001-2006.  

•	Delinquent reimbursement requests continue to be a large source of forecast variance.  In fiscal year 2002, $19.6 million, or 2.3 percent, of the $826.2 million were delinquent tax year reimbursements.  Delinquencies greater than one year were not accounted for in the fiscal year 2002 forecast.  Delinquency rates are now estimated and included in the current forecast.

•	Locality and taxpayer behavior has always been a major contributor to forecast variance.  As the reimbursement percentage has risen, behavior has changed.  However, the reimbursement percentage has been frozen at 70 percent over the forecast period.  Locality tax due dates will not be used as a determining factor of cash flow.  Since the reimbursement percentage is not going change, it is assumed that behavior will not change.  

•	Appendix A provides actual and estimated PPTRA reimbursements by locality.

Summary of Fiscal Year 2003 Forecast

There are two variables that drive personal property tax reimbursements, average assessed vehicle values and vehicle count (active vehicle registrations).  Historical and forecast data for these two variables are shown in the table below.

There were several notable changes made to the PPTRA model this year.  The methodology sections cover the changes in greater detail.  

1.	Recession vehicle growth rates and assessed vehicle value have been discarded as a result of zero percent financing and historical rates have been utilized.
2.	The model has been updated to include reimbursement estimates for claims filed more than one year after a tax year has elapsed.
3.	The revised model uses more detailed data on vehicle counts and vehicle value and explicitly accounts for vehicle value greater than $20,000.
4.	This year, if a locality has taken the forecast in the past, their detailed data is based on the forecast they accepted.  

The table below shows the forecast for fiscal years 2003 to 2006 and compares it to current appropriations.
Forecast versus Appropriations (in Millions $)

	FY03	FY04	FY05	FY06	
Forecast
	874.0	920.7	964.4	1,010.5	
Appropriations	819.2	847.9			

$ Difference
	$54.8	$72.8			
Key Forecast Points 

•	The tax year 2002 reimbursement rate was frozen at 70 percent due to General Fund revenue growth failing to meet the 5 percent revenue growth trigger as specified in Section 58.1-3524 (C)2. 

•	The PPTRA forecast uses tax years 1998 and 1999 actual data as the baseline.  Tax year 2000 and onward are all based on forecasted vehicle counts and vehicle value.  The percent distribution for tax year 1999 vehicle counts and total vehicle value was used to forecast future years’ distribution of vehicles and value. 

•	It is assumed that after the fourth fiscal year for any given tax year, reimbursements are complete.  Reimbursements requested during the fifth fiscal year have been insignificant.  

•	The instrumental variable for vehicle counts is the number of active registrations by locality provided by the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV).  The model uses a comparison between an annualized growth rate across history and the growth rate across the last two years in the series.  The final growth rate was based on which calculation yielded the highest number.  

•	The growth rate in vehicle value is based on new and used vehicle prices.  The growth rate was calculated using a fifteen-year moving annualized growth rate in new and used vehicle prices.  The final growth rate is based on a weighted-average of growth in new and used vehicle prices.  An analysis of fiscal year-to-date reimbursement requests from the large localities was taken into account when assessing the growth in average assessed value.  A judgmental reduction in average assessed vehicle value – from 4.2 percent to 2.5 percent – was made due to this additional information.  

•	This model explicitly accounts for those vehicles that have a value greater than the $20,000 cap.  It does not explicitly account for those vehicles that are valued less than $1,000 as these vehicles make up a relatively small portion of the qualified vehicle fleet.  

•	The tax year 1999 estimate was compared to actual tax year reimbursements and adjustments were made to the vehicle counts and average assessed value.  Tax year 2001 was also adjusted, but the scope of the adjustments was not as large as the previous two tax years.  Tax year 2001 localities were only adjusted if the forecast was less than actual reimbursements as of June 30, 2002.  

•	Appendix B provides PPTRA actual locality reimbursements for fiscal year 1999-2002 and forecasts by locality for fiscal years 2003 to2006.

Methodology

The following section is an overview of the revisions to the PPTRA model.  Next, the methodology used to forecast PPTRA reimbursements is presented in detail.

Revisions to the PPTRA Model

1.	The explicit judgmental adjustment made by economists at DMV to lower motor vehicle sales to rates experienced in the 1990-91 recession has been eliminated.  New car sales growth rates are based on the new car sales forecast growth rates from the Commonwealth Transportation Fund model.  
2.	The model has been updated to include reimbursement estimates for claims filed more than one year after a tax year has elapsed.  In previous models, a one-year delinquency had been included, however, there is a five-year window for localities to submit requests for any given tax year according to Section 58.1-3940 of the Code of Virginia.   
3.	The model was significantly revised to be more dynamic, user-friendly and to account for the $20,000 cap.  The model is now able to produce forecasts at various cap level.  There are now 5 different ranges for vehicle values and vehicle values over $20,000 have been removed for all localities.  This will allow the model to also produce impacts from alternative cap scenarios.  The old model was unable to produce these types of impacts
4.	The PPTRA legislation, Section 58.1-3526 of the Code of Virginia allows the locality to either accept the forecast provided to them or to submit detailed records.  The previous model did not account for those localities that accepted the reimbursement forecast for their locality.  In the past, those localities’ tax year forecast was not pegged and could change as a result of the addition of/revision to data.  In the revised model, if a locality has taken the reimbursement forecast in the previous year, their underlying forecast for vehicle values and counts for that year is considered final.  The localities that have accepted a forecast in the past year are included in Appendix C.

Baseline Data

There were two data downloads done this year, tax years 1998 and 1999.  This is the same as last year, although the data has been used differently.  

The PPTRA forecast uses tax years 1998 and 1999 actual data.  Actual data used in the model is tax year 1998 vehicle counts, vehicle value, reimbursements and tax year 1999 reimbursements.  Tax year 1999 vehicle counts and vehicle value have been calibrated to match the reimbursements as of June 30, 2002.  Tax year 2000 and onward are based on forecasted vehicle counts and vehicle value.  Therefore, based on actual reimbursements, tax year 1999 has now become the base year.  

The dataset includes a breakdown of vehicle counts and total vehicle value by five different cost categories.  The percent distribution for tax year 1999 vehicle counts and total vehicle value was used to forecast future years’ distribution of vehicles and value to produce the forecast.  More detailed analysis is presented in the following sections.  

It is assumed that after the fourth fiscal year for any given tax year, reimbursements are complete.  For example, fiscal year 2002 was the last year that tax year 1999 reimbursements would be expected.  Therefore, tax year 1999 reimbursements are considered to be complete.  Additional 1999 reimbursements are assumed to be insignificant.  With tax year 1998 as the base year and forecasted growth rates in vehicle counts and average assessed vehicle value, the model is able to provide an estimate for tax year 1999.  This estimate was then compared to the actual tax year 1999 reimbursements and adjustments were made to the vehicle counts and average assessed vehicle value.  (Adjustments are available by requesting Appendix AA).    

Vehicle Count Growth Rates

The variable used to determine vehicle counts is the number of active registrations by locality provided by the DMV.  There are currently nine years of data, 1993-2001.  To forecast vehicle counts, the model uses a comparison of the growth rate across history and the growth rate across the last two years in the series.  The growth rate used in the forecast of vehicle counts was the higher of the two growth rates.  The growth rate for tax year 1999 was applied to tax year 1998 data to produce a tax year 1999 estimate of vehicles by locality.  All of the future tax years were done in a similar fashion.

Average Assessed Vehicle Value Growth Rates

The variable used to determine growth in vehicle value is new and used vehicle prices.  The growth rate was calculated using a fifteen-year moving annualized growth rate in new and used vehicle prices.  Unlike the growth rate in vehicles, there is a growth rate for each tax year in the forecast period, however it is not done by jurisdiction because the data is only available at a statewide basis.  The output of this process is included in Appendix D.

Vehicle Value Calculation

Vehicle value was calculated differently this year.  The vehicle value forecast is the product of vehicle count and average assessed vehicle value.  However, this model explicitly accounts for those vehicles that have a value greater than $20,000.  It does not explicitly account for those vehicles that are valued at less than $1,000 as these vehicles make up a small portion of the qualified vehicle fleet.  Since the vehicle count and vehicle value data is broken out in five different cost categories, the model is able to adjust the total vehicle value.  A sample of tax year 1999 can be found on the following page and a complete listing is available by requesting Appendix BB.

      1.   $0-999
2.	$1,000-10,014
3.	$10,015-15,207
4.	$15,208-20,000
5.	$20,001-up 

Since the tax year 1999 data set is considered to be complete, this year is a good measure of the distribution of vehicles and vehicle value.  The percent distribution of vehicles and values using the five cost categories was applied to the vehicle count and value forecast and the result is a forecast of vehicles and value based on the five cost categories.  An example of this process is shown below using Accomack County (use the cost category list above for reference).

Cost Category	1	2	3	4	5	
Vehicle Count
	30.2%	55.6%	8.3%	3.8%	2.0%	
Vehicle Value	3.4%	47.2%	23.4%	14.8%	11.2%	

Total Vehicle Count Forecast:  		24,503
Average Assessed Vehicle Value Forecast:	$4,589
Total Vehicle Value (in Millions $):		$112.4

Cost Category	1	2	3	4	5	
Vehicle Count
	7,402	13,627	2,036	940	498	
Vehicle Value (in Millions $)	$3.8	$53.0	$26.3	$16.7	$12.6	

Vehicle Value is based on the following equations:

Vehicle Value = Total Vehicle Value – Taxpayer Liability
Total Vehicle Value = (Vehicle Count)*(Average Assessed Vehicle Value)
Taxpayer Liability = [(Average Vehicle Value > cap)-cap]* (Vehicle Count > cap)
Average Vehicle Value > cap= (Vehicle Value >cap) / (Vehicle Count > cap)

This same process is used for all tax years in the forecast period.  The tax year 1999 percentage distribution was used for all tax years.  Once this process is complete, the taxes paid and reimbursement amounts are then calculated based on locality tax rates and the appropriate reimbursement percentage.  

Tax Year and Fiscal Year Forecasts

The fiscal year reimbursement forecast is developed in two stages.  Estimates for future reimbursements are first generated for each locality on a tax year basis given that the reimbursement percentages are based on a tax year rather than the fiscal year.  Tax year estimates are then distributed across fiscal years.

Tax Year Forecast Verification

Tax year 1999 is considered to be complete.  Therefore a comparison between the forecasted reimbursements and actual reimbursements is possible.  The tax year 1999 estimate was then compared to the actual tax year reimbursements and adjustments were made to the vehicle counts and average assessed vehicle values.  

Tax year 1999 reimbursements by fiscal year were then charted to see if there was some pattern to the reimbursements.  Also, tax year 2000 was charted to see if there were some relationships between the two tax years.  Since the relationship between tax year 1999 and 2000 was quite clear, it was easy to determine what the last tax year 2000 point would be.  For each jurisdiction, the fourth fiscal year point (fiscal year 2002) of tax year 1999 reimbursements was used as a basis to determine the remaining tax year 2000 reimbursements yet to be requested.  The model was adjusted to bring it within expectations.  

Tax year 2001 was also adjusted, but the scope of the adjustment was not as large as the previous two tax years.  Tax year 2001 localities were only adjusted if the expected reimbursements were less than actual reimbursements as of June 30, 2002.  

Fiscal Year Forecast

Currently, the law enables localities a five-year window from which to collect taxes for any given tax year and still receive reimbursement

The estimates developed through the forecasting process are based on the assumption that after the fourth fiscal year, the tax year reimbursements are complete.  Any reimbursements requested during the fifth fiscal year are assumed to be insignificant because local historical data reveal little assessment or collection activity.  

Tax years 2000 and 2001 are now used as guides for distributing the tax year forecast across fiscal years.  The third and fourth fiscal year percentages of tax year 2000 reimbursements were used to distribute the remaining tax year 2001 forecast.  The statewide distribution is illustrated on the next page.  

Fiscal Year	1st 	2nd 	3rd 	4th 	
Tax Year 2000	23.7%	72.3%	3.3%	0.8%	
Tax Year 2001	23.0%	72.1%	3.7%	1.1%	
Tax Year 2002	23.7%	71.5%	3.7%	1.1%	
Tax Year 2003	23.7%	71.5%	3.7%	1.1%	
Tax Year 2004	23.7%	71.5%	3.7%	1.1%	
Tax Year 2005	23.7%	71.5%	3.7%	1.1%	
Tax Year 2006	23.7%	71.5%	3.7%	1.1%	

The fourth fiscal year (FY03) for tax year 2000 was a forecasted percentage (0.8 percent).  By taking the sum of the last two fiscal years (FY02-03) for tax year 2000 and the percentage of dollars in each of the two provided a guide to distribute the remaining tax year 2001 reimbursements across the last two fiscal years.  Locality and taxpayer behavior are the driving forces for the fiscal year forecasts.  (Appendix CC for tax year 1999-2006 distributions of reimbursements across fiscal years is available upon request).  

It is now necessary to distribute the fiscal year forecast into six-month intervals.  Fiscal year 2002 was used as the baseline for this process.  For each jurisdiction, the percentage of total fiscal year reimbursements in six-month intervals was used to distribute the fiscal year forecast.  Fiscal year 2002 was the best year to use since the reimbursement percentage has been frozen at 70 percent and is assumed to stay there the entire forecast period.  There were also no accounting adjustments as was the case in fiscal year 2000 and 2001.  

The forecasting methodology is shown in Figure 2 on the following page.

Number of Qualified Vehicles
Vehicle Value
Taxes Paid
Actual Reimbursements

Tax Year 1999 Reimbursement Data

Tax Year 1998 PPTRA Data

Tax year data for those that took Tax Year forecast

Forecast of Vehicle Prices

Vehicle Registration Data

Calculation of Growth Rate in Qualifying Vehicles

Calculation of Growth in Average Assessed Vehicle Value

Calculation of Total Qualifying Vehicles
Vehicle Value
Total Taxes Paid
Total Reimbursements by Locality

Tax Year Forecast by Locality
Tax Year 2000-2006

Fiscal Year Forecast by Locality
Tax Year 2003-2006

Adjustment for Delinquent Payments 

Adjustment for Tax Due Dates 

Adjustment for Actual Reimbursements 

Figure 2: PPTRA Forecasting Process

Fiscal and Tax Year Forecast Performance

The PPTRA reimbursement forecast for fiscal years 1999 to 2006 is highlighted below in the following table (in millions of dollars).  

PPTRA Forecast and Appropriations

	FY99	FY00	FY01	FY02	FY03	FY04	FY05	FY06	
Forecast
	159.9	321.7	598.7	809.4	874.0	920.7	964.4	1,010.5	
Actual Reimbursements
	181.5	322.1	604.2	826.1	--	--	--	--	

$ Difference
	-21.6	-0.4	-5.5	-16.7	--	--	--	--	

% Difference
	-11.9%	0.1%	0.9%	2.0%	--	--	--	--	

Note:  Forecast horizon assumes 70% reimbursement rate since triggers needed to progress to the next level of reimbursement rate are not met in the interim revenue forecast released August 19, 2002.

As of July 2002, tax year 2000 reimbursements were over $523.1 million.  This is a substantial increase over the $518.2 million forecast made last year for that tax year.  The following table shows the comparison of the tax year forecast made last year to the amount actually reimbursed.  The table shows that there is currently a $0.4 million difference between actual tax year reimbursements and the forecast for 1998, a -$3.6 million difference for tax year 1999 and a $5.3 million difference for tax year 2000.

Tax Year		Actual Reimbursements		    Forecast Last Year
1998	$125.3 million	$124.9 million	
1999	$287.0 million	$290.6 million	
2000	$523.5 million	$518.2 million	

Appendix A provides data on actual reimbursements versus the budget amount for each locality for FY 2002 with variance along with a comparison of last year’s fiscal and tax year forecasts with this year’s fiscal and tax year forecasts.